For anyone interested or Browns fans with (plenty of) time on their hands, some speculation/analysis follows about potential Cleveland first-day draft decisions. (The NFL draft begins this Saturday, 4/25/09. Cleveland currently has the #5 selection in the first round.)
Disclaimers: These are somewhat informed guesses. Most pre-draft analysis is just that, for the most part. (Especially with tight-lipped coaches.) I have no inside or individual source information. Only what I've read in print media, blogs, etc. (My main reads are non-subscriber to "The Orange and Brown Report",writers for various Cleveland-area newspapers, and "national" media (not including Mel Kiper).) My guesses below are my own, based upon reading these and other sources. (Note: I stopped reading for this piece this morning (4/22).)
At this point probably no one knows a whole lot except Eric Mangini and George Kokinis (GM). Obviously, I can be totally wrong, especially if trades occur and/or the top three or four teams in the draft do something unexpected. (A lot of draft prognosticators will be too.)
With a team like Cleveland -- rebuilding again -- the draft is critical. And it's where they've fallen down in the past. Here are some current thoughts/trends. This is an intriguing draft (for some), so watch out; it gets complicated:
-- Eric Mangini/George Kokinis very much want to acquire additional draft picks for the team. That's the #1 thing to know. However; logically, I don't think that they will make a trade unless they feel they are "getting enough" in return. That means that Braylon Edwards, Derek Anderson, and/or Brady Quinn could still be Browns after this weekend. But some would still be trade candidates through the summer.
-- As one scenario, Cleveland would like to trade down from its current #5 pick to acquire additional selections. But as many have pointed out, this is often easier said than done.
-- From reading educated guesses from various writers/bloggers, it appears that Braylon Edwards can be acquired for a first round pick and a third round pick, or some fairly minor variation of this (first rounder required, though). The "talk" is that he is the most likely Browns player to be traded, by the way. My scenarios below assume he is traded.
-- If attempted, it will be difficult (but not impossible) to obtain a first round pick (etc.) for Brady Quinn (by himself). Don't know what D. Anderson might fetch, but it may not matter as it seems that the new Browns regime may prefer him and his strong arm. Much of the draft speculation below unavoidably depends upon whether Cleveland trades a quarterback or not. It also depends upon who their trade partner might be. Most "experts" I've read put the likelihood that one QB will be traded on/around draft day at about 50-50.
-- Eric Mangini may well be doing a Bill Parcells/Bill Belechick imitation by intentionally keeping his players "unsettled" (not complacent), via a tight lid on information (and player/coach communication), and allowing media types, etc. to speculate with little information about possible trades, team draft directions, etc.
Taking the above as likely "givens" (as of today), here's some speculation on what might happen on day 1 of the draft for Cleveland:
1. Unless a pre-draft deal happens or is in place with a draft-day "trigger" (e.g., executed by certain, top-of-draft teams' selections), Cleveland will probably wait to do much involving a draft position move-down/trade until at least the first three picks are announced. What Detroit and Kansas City end up doing with their selections will be especially important. (But watch Seattle, too.) And, as a down-the-list, ancillary motive, I think KC (Scott Pioli) would like to do whatever he can to "screw" Eric Mangini. Including a trade with another team. (E.g., he knows the Browns would consider Eugene Monroe or Aaron Curry if they drop.)
1a: That said, I think these will probably be the first three selections in the draft: 1. Detroit: Matthew Stafford, QB (There's some speculation that the Lions could 'pass' on the top pick. Or, they may take Jason Smith, OT) 2. St.Louis: probably Jason Smith (but could be Eugene Monroe, OT) 3. Kansas City: probably Aaron Curry, LB (but could be one of the two top OT's, or a trade). I don't really have a "feel" at all for what Seattle might do. Mark Sanchez is a possibility.
2. If Cleveland can trade B. Edwards (for a first and third pick), they may have to go for Michael Crabtree with the fifth selection if he's still there. But if Curry is still there at #5, they will consider him. And don't be shocked if Cleveland still goes defense at #5 even with Edwards traded and Curry not available. But this greatly depends upon how much they like Brian Orakpo or B.J Raji, and only the "inner sanctum" really knows that right now. It also depends upon draft picks acquired in any possible Quinn/Anderson trade. But Cleveland could use the lower first round pick (Edwards trade) to select a decent WR like Darrius Heyward-Bey, Kenny Britt, Hakeem Nicks (round 2?), or Brian Robiskie (round 2?), while selecting Curry, Orakpo, or Raji at #5. (WRs are fairly strong in this draft.) This specific angle also assumes that Cleveland thinks LBs Clay Matthews III, Rey Maualuga and others like Larry English will probably be gone before the bottom picks of the first round. (I.e., the first pick they'd probably get for Edwards.) Otherwise, pencil in Monroe (if available) or Crabtree at #5 and likely Matthews or a DB who "slips"with their late first round pick (acquired).
It seems risky to hope that Matthews/Maualuga (Larry English?), or a top DB will be available at, say, pick #29. But if Cleveland likes the players mentioned and other round 2-type defenders, they may take that chance. This draft appears to have few superstars, but decent depth.
3. If Quinn (or Anderson) is traded, it raises the possibility that Cleveland may select QB Mark Sanchez with the #5 pick if available; especially if they also obtain a later first round pick via an Edwards trade. (WR taken there.) Cleveland must obtain at least a top second rounder (or better) plus other selections for Quinn (or Anderson). (This may make Detroit, St. Louis, or Jacksonville possible QB trade partners. But, does Cleveland already have a lower first rounder on the table for Quinn, as some are guessing?) Some of this also depends upon whether the Browns feel that WVU's Pat White (or someone else) available later could become a legit NFL QB....And hey, JP Losman and Charlie Frye are still out there as free agents.
Cleveland could also possibly pick Sanchez, not trade one of its own QBs, and then still move Sanchez to a first round team a few places down who covets him.
4. If not accomplished in round 1, Cleveland will likely go defensive backfield early and perhaps often in the second round, unless they're able to take C Alex Mack with an early (perhaps 'extra') second round selection. (And an OT not taken in round 1.) Depending on how many picks they end up with here a RB is possible also, especially IF a quality back like Donald Brown is still available.
5. Through all of the above, remember that most "experts" project a poor-to-mediocre season in 2009 for the Browns. So unless they trade it away (bad move), Cleveland may well be selecting somewhere in the first round's top 10-14 of the 2010 draft. Rebuilding is usually a multi-year process. So again, watch for Cleveland to try and obtain as many picks (even some for next year) as possible.
That's enough. (More than....) Let's see how much of all this flies right out the window (and how quickly). It's speculation. Laying it on the line:
First round, #5 (if they stay there): Brian Orakpo (if available). A. Curry is possible, if still available. Eugene Monroe is intriguing if available, as Jason Smith also would be. But if Quinn is traded, Mark Sanchez becomes more possible. If they keep Sanchez at #5 or draft Monroe, they must firmly believe/hope that a quality receiver (or two) and defenders who can help quickly will be available at later picks. (Assuming they're sane....)
I think Cleveland's at least considering the "best player available" (at a need area) for this #5 selection. I'd currently rank the pick probabilities as: 1. Orakpo 2. Monroe 3. Sanchez 4. Raji 5. Crabtree 6. Curry. Since NO ONE "knows" right now, these guesses are based upon team needs and likelihoods of availability to the Browns. As can be seen, I don't think that Curry will be available for them (and he doesn't quite match their edge-rusher/LB need.) Crabtree appears to have attitude issues, and other decent receivers will be available.
In a trade-down-for-picks scenario (using Sanchez or possibly Crabtree, with Quinn/Anderson also traded separately), the Browns will try to take a top defensive player (e.g., Aaron Maybin, Malcolm Jenkins, Everette Brown, Clay Matthews III, Rey Maualuga) with the now-somewhat-lower first round pick acquired. (They'd have to work out the new QB 'hole' some other way.) In this scenario they'll also need at least one WR (Edwards also traded), and another need-oriented defender as soon they can draft them. (Although Alex Mack is another possibility.)
First round, later pick from an Edwards trade: A WR like Britt or Heyward-Bey, or possibly Brian Robiskie, unless Crabtree is taken/kept at #5. With Crabtree drafted, then Matthews or a promising DB who 'slips' (Vontae Davis, Darius Butler), or even S Louis Delmas will likely be taken here.
Second round picks (may wind up with at least three): DBs remain a priority. (Louis Delmas has been mentioned prominently, but others want him too. Patrick Chung is another possibility.) But if one of these is found in round 1, a defensive lineman/linebacker or two is especially needed IF the Browns don't take Orakpo/Raji. Connor Barwin is one name being mentioned. Larry English could still be available. Conversely, a second WR may be needed if defenders are mostly taken in round 1. (Nicks?) Also, a quality RB, if still available. Also DT Ron Brace, if teammate Raji is not taken in round 1. And perhaps Alex Mack early, if still around. (I think Pittsburgh will want him.) Pat White or another QB, if Sanchez not taken and Quinn/Anderson traded....?
Quite a mess. So, a wild guess for round 2, using three picks and Orakpo/Raji taken in Round 1: L. Delmas, H. Nicks, best DB available or Brace ( if Raji not taken). If Alex Mack is available, he's a possibility, as is a quality RB, if available.
Alternate round 2 scenario, if OT (Monroe) taken in Round 1: Larry English if available, or H. Nicks (or another round 2 WR) assuming Edwards is gone, but possibly Donald Brown, if available. Other round 2 picks: Connor Barwin/Alphonso Smith, R. Brace. (B. Robiskie or K. Britt are taken by Cleve. late in round 1. "Beanie" Wells is off the board before the Browns' picks in round 2.)
So we'll see how far off all of these guesses will be. Get ready for moves and some surprises from the Browns....
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